Everyday Killings in Mexico Drop Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Data

The typical count of per-day murders each month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh government data. But, security analysts have advised that homicide figures might not point to enhanced national safety.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 murders a day in last November versus almost 87 when the President took the presidency in September. This announcement was provided by the director of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that have been recorded in these months is very significant,” the President said, adding that last month the smallest number of murders were registered for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel infighting, combined with the government’s heavily military operations to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data office.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x higher than the United States. Since then, murders have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an ostensibly steeper drop in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state declared: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central pillars of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigative work.
• Greater collaboration between government authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

But, public safety experts cautioned that focusing solely on murder numbers to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true in light of the rise in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be excellent news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

As reported by the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer useful for assessing the context of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to properly recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of daily killings was additionally problematic because it might obscure periods when there were especially high levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily average makes surges of violence invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can highlight the success of its safety plan is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were detained between last October and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, per official figures. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico is still plagued by extreme bloodshed, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Last month there was a notable assassination of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to show their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of security. Politically it’s highly potent, socially it’s extremely debatable,” the analyst concluded.