How Donald Trump Secured a Gaza Breakthrough That Escaped Joe Biden
Initially, Israel's aerial attack on the Hamas negotiating team in Qatar seemed like yet another escalation that pushed the hope of a ceasefire out of reach.
This strike on September 9 breached the sovereignty of an American ally and threatened expanding the conflict into a broader regional conflict.
Negotiations seemed to be in ruins.
However, it turned out to be a key moment that culminated in a deal, declared by Donald Trump, to free all remaining hostages.
That represents a goal that Trump, and Joe Biden before him, had sought for almost 24 months.
This marks just the first step towards a more durable peace, and the details of disarming Hamas, administering Gaza and complete Israeli pullout are still to be negotiated.
Yet if this deal stands, it could be Donald Trump's signature achievement of his return to office - one that escaped Joe Biden and his administration.
The president's unique style and crucial relationships with the Israeli government and the Arab world appear to have played a role in this breakthrough.
However, as with most foreign policy wins, there were also factors involved beyond the control of either man.
A Close Relationship That Biden Never Had
Publicly, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are all smiles.
Trump likes to say that the nation has no greater ally, and Netanyahu has described him as Israel's "most supportive friend in the White House". And these warm words have been matched by deeds.
During his initial time in office, Trump relocated the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and abandoned a traditional American stance that Jewish communities in the occupied territories are against international law, the position under global norms.
When Israel began its air strikes against the Islamic Republic in June, the US leader directed American aircraft to target the nation's atomic sites with its most powerful conventional bombs.
Those public demonstrations of support may have allowed the president the leeway to exert more pressure on the Israeli government behind the scenes. According to reports, Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, pressured the prime minister in the latter part of the year into agreeing to a temporary ceasefire in return for the freeing of some hostages.
After Israeli forces launched strikes against Syrian forces in the summer, even bombing a place of worship, Trump urged his counterpart to change course.
The leader exhibited a level of will and pressure on an Israel's leader that is virtually unprecedented, according to an analyst of the a think tank. "It's unheard of of an US leader directly instructing an Israeli prime minister that they must agree or else."
Joe Biden's connection with Netanyahu's government was always more strained.
The Biden team's "close embrace strategy" held that the United States had to support the nation publicly in order to enable it to influence the nation's military actions in private.
Underneath this was the president's nearly half-century of backing for the state, as well as sharp divisions within his Democratic coalition over the conflict in Gaza. Each move Biden took risked dividing his own political backing, while Trump's loyal conservative voters gave him more room to manoeuvre.
Ultimately, domestic politics or personal relationships may have had less importance than the reality that, during Biden's presidency, the Israeli government was not ready to make peace.
Several months into his new administration, with Iran weakened, Hezbollah to its immediate north greatly diminished and the coastal strip devastated, every one of its major strategy objectives had been achieved.
Commercial Background Assisted Gain Support from Arab States
An Israeli strike in the Qatari capital, which resulted in the death of a local national but no Hamas officials, led Trump to issue an ultimatum to the prime minister. The war had to end.
The US leader had given the Israeli military a relatively free hand in Gaza. He lent American military might to Israeli operations in Iran. But an attack on Qatari territory was a different matter completely, moving him closer to the stance of Arab nations on how best to conclude the conflict.
A number of Trump officials have informed the press that this was a decisive moment which galvanised the president to exert maximum pressure to get a peace deal done.
This US president's close ties with the Arab monarchies are well documented. Trump has commercial interests with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The president began each of his administrations with official trips to the kingdom. Recently, Trump also visited in Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
The president's Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and several Muslim states, such as the Emirates, was the biggest diplomatic achievement of his first term.
His visits devoted in the capitals of the Gulf region in recent months contributed to shift his perspective, according to an expert of the a policy institute. Trump did not visit Israel on this regional tour but went to the United Arab Emirates, the kingdom and the state where the leader received consistent appeals to put a stop to the conflict.
Less than a month after that attack on the city, the president sat close as the prime minister personally called Qatar to apologise. Subsequently, the Israeli leader signed off on the president's comprehensive proposal for the territory - one that additionally had the support of key Muslim nations in the area.
If the president's relationship with Netanyahu provided him the room to influence the government to strike a deal, his history with Arab rulers may have ensured their support, and assisted them persuade Hamas to commit to the deal.
"A key factor that clearly happened was that the US leader gained influence with the Israelis, and through intermediaries with Hamas," notes an analyst of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"That made a difference. The capacity to achieve this on his own schedule, and avoid yielding to the desires of the warring sides has been a challenge that lot of earlier administrations have faced, and Trump seems to do relatively successfully."
The fact that the president is much more popular in the nation than Netanyahu himself was an advantage that he used to his advantage, he adds.
Now Israel has committed to freeing more than 1,000 detainees imprisoned in Israeli prisons and has consented to a partial withdrawal from the strip.
Hamas will release all the remaining hostages, both alive and deceased, taken during the initial October 7 Hamas attack, which resulted in the loss of more than 1,200 Israelis.
A conclusion to the war, which has led to the devastation of the territory and the fatalities of over 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal