Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
