Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.